8 July 2006
On June 29, 2006 US
Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Michael Leavitt posted a 12-page
“Pandemic Planning Update II” that contained valuable information on the
chronology of the spreading avian H5N1 pandemic and of US preparedness
countermeasures. Subheadings of this
second update, posted at www.pandemicflu.gov
include: “Monitoring and Surveillance”, Vaccines and Vaccine Production Capacity,
Antiviral Drugs, State and Local Preparedness, and Communications.
Multiple key points
were made in this update. For example, it was reported that “In May, the United
States shipped an amount of the antiviral drug Tamiflu to a secure location in
an Asian country. The Tamiflu could be used as part of the international
community’s efforts to contain a pandemic.”
Also, the successful effort of Thailand and Vietnam to control the
outbreak of H5N1 in their human population was emphasized: “Up to now, the
disease appears to be successfully contained through culling in Vietnam and
Thailand.” This statement, however, does not include a major difference between
the control measures of these two nations, namely that Vietnam has extensively
used veterinary vaccines against H5N1 in their poultry, while Thailand has not.
Information provided
in the text of this updated plan has been used (by this writer) to create the
following table summarizing the current US stockpile of key items (termed “AS
IS”) with plans to increase the stockpile in the future (termed “TO BE”).
Item AS
IS (today) TO BE
(in the future)
N-95 respirators 20.2 million 100
million (9/2007)
Surgical masks 12.3 million 50
million (9/2006)
Tamiflu (oseltamivir)
6.2
million regimens 21.6 million
(12/2006)
(10 Capsule regimens)
Relenza (zanamivir) 84,000 regimens 3.984 million (12/2006)
Liquid Tamiflu 8,600 regimens not stated
(e.g., for small
children)
Clade 1 H5N1 Vaccine ~
8 million doses not stated
in this update
Clade 2 H5N1 vaccine “toward
development” not stated
Ventilators not
stated 6,000
more (in 2006)
Daniel R. Lucey, MD,
MPH e-mail:
Daniel.R.Lucey@Medstar.net
Director, Center for
Biologic Counterterrorism and Emerging Diseases
Washington Hospital
Center EROne Institutes (see: www.BePast.org)
Co-Director, Master
of Science Graduate Program in
Biohazardous Threat
Agents and Emerging Infectious Diseases,
Georgetown Medical
School, Washington DC